Rajesh Jain’s tech talk states, “… I will offer my picks for the 10 technologies and trends that either showed promise, made the news and/or made a difference in 2003.”
25Dec
25 Years of Technology
Filed in Technology
SPECIAL REPORT
InfoWorld’s anniversary: 25 years of technology
A look back at technology developments in the last quarter century and predictions for the future
1979 – 1985: The Dawn of the PC
Personal computers meet the enterprise
1986 – 1995: The Networked Enterprise
LAN, Ethernet, Lotus Notes, Windows 95, and a connected workforce
1996 – 1999: The Internet Era
What a lovely bubble it was
2000 – 2003: The Age of (In)Security
Grappling with worms, viruses, and a devastating terrorist attack
Plus a look at the next 25 years.
The path to pervasive computing
Consumer electronics show us the way
Computers that mimic intelligence
Do computers need ‘brains’ to function intelligently?
The invisible workforce: IT in the future
As IT becomes invisible, so do the workers who keep it that way
After silicon: Biocomputing at work
Organic processes become the model for future technology
The visionaries
IT leaders make predictions about the future
18Dec
IT Services Requires Local Handholding
Filed in Management | Technology
At a time when offshore IT companies continue to post excellent results, these firms seem to confirm there is a requirement to have good solid account relationships based near the customer. The Economist November 20, 2003 “Bangalore, Texas”
A study of the value chain suggests this is a very intelligent move by the offshore firms. The standardization of IT development processes reduces the development time and improves the quality of the code and for all players. It is clear the only sustainable superior position is to be the low-cost provider. With operating margins often in the 20% range, there is plenty of room for other offshore firms in the same region or in lower cost regions to offer lower prices.
As the process standardization has moved from programming processes to design techniques, these activities have also moved to the low-cost provider. Will this continue right up the value chain to business strategy and financial advisors? Not likely. Oh, it will happen in a few isolated situations and there will be parts of the process, such as research and graphics production capabilities, which will move to lower cost providers.
The activities from business strategy through business rule verification will continue to be provided locally with lots of interation with the client. Offshore companies must develop this capability before their current business becomes a pure commodity. Local organizations should develop offshore capabilities or build relationship with several smaller offshore firms in order to provide a range of application development alternatives for their clients. There are numerous offshore companies seeking just such relationships.
Local companies will have difficulty moving from a fully integrated model to one based on development partners, as it means slow or negative growth for their local application development capabilities. An unenviable position at best. This opens the opportunity for a new breed of IT strategy consulting which provides application development through several relationships with local and offshore firms.
Offshore IT Article
IT Careers Caught in a Cross-Current
November 10, 2003
By Sharon Gaudin
18Dec
Offshore Outsourcing
Filed in Economy | International Politics | Management | Technology | USA politics
As I look at predictions for 2004, one area where consensus abounds and debate increases is “Offshore Outsourcing”, the movement of knowledge worker jobs offshore. There is abundant agreement that this will continue, even accelerate.
At the same time there is widespread disagreement as to whether this is a good thing for US and European economies. Here are some articles and papers on the issue.
In this paper, McKinsey estimates for every dollar of US work outsourced to India, the return to the US is between $1.12 and $1.14. India stands to increase their GDP by $0.33.
Offshoring: Is it a Win-Win Game?
McKinsey Global Institute
August, 2003
Offshoring – Relocating the back office
Dec 11th 2003 From The Economist print edition
The Organizational Implications of Offshore Outsourcing
24 October 2003
Diane Morello
Acrobat Version
The Irony of Outsourcing
By Kevin Laws on November 18, 2003 09:03 PM
Supports the argument that economic activity flowing to the most efficient provider creates the greatest total value and in the long run the greatest value for each country involved. He points out the engineers who “thought” manufacturing workers out of jobs are now seeing their own jobs reduced and sent offshore.
16Dec
Technology Pioneers of 2004
Filed in Economy | Technology
The World Economic
Forum’s Technology
Pioneers 2004
I saw this on Rajesh Jain’s Weblog, EMERGIC.org.
16Dec
Network Learning
Filed in Economy | Management | Technology
Connections: The Impact of Schooling
December 2003 – Jay Cross
Cross writes, “Most learning is informal; a network approach makes it easier, more productive and more memorable to meet, share and collaborate. Emotional intelligence promotes interoperability with others. Expert locators connect you to the person with the right answer. Imagine focusing the hive mind that emerges in massive multiplayer games on business. Smart systems will prescribe the apt way to demonstrate a procedure, help make a decision or provide a service, or transform an individual’s self-image. Networks will serve us instead of the other way around.”
This last sentence is critical. The individual taps into the network in the way she prefers. Yes, she is a part of the network, but she is not compromised by the thinking of others in the network. Not only does she not have to agree with others in the network, she does not have to “agree to disagree” with others in the network.
Let’s compare this to “brainstorming” sessions. We’ve all been party to “group think” sessions where one or two people have dominated or controlled the actions and outcomes of the group. Often resulting is sub-par results. (Remember those survival exercises where one member of the group scores better than the group collectively. Where two heads are worse than one?) It can be due to the person’s personality, debating skills, authority relative to others in the session or knowledge of the subject. It may be, but does not have to be intentional.
These “group think” sessions, usually corporate sponsored, have a limitation that the learning network does not have. They have to come to a single conclusionn. In the learning network, each member has the opportunity to take the network information and come to her own conclusions.
So just maybe two heads are better than one, and four heads are better than two and eight heads are better than four and so on and so on…
I’d like to see that happen here.
10Dec
Offshore IT Services Requires Local Handholding
Filed in Economy | Management | Technology
At a time when offshore IT companies continue to post excellent results, these firms seem to confirm there is a requirement to have good solid account relationships based near the customer. The Economist November 20, 2003 “Bangalore, Texas”
A study of the value chain suggests this is a very intelligent move by the offshore firms. The standardization of IT development processes reduces the development time and improves the quality of the code and for all players. It is clear the only sustainable superior position is to be the low-cost provider. With operating margins often in the 20% range, there is plenty of room for other offshore firms in the same region or in lower cost regions to offer lower prices.
As the process standardization has moved from programming processes to design techniques, these activities have also moved to the low-cost provider. Will this continue right up the value chain to business strategy and financial advisors? Not likely. Oh, it will happen in a few isolated situations and there will be parts of the process, such as research and graphics production capabilities, which will move to lower cost providers.
The activities from business strategy through business rule verification will continue to be provided locally with lots of interation with the client. Offshore companies must develop this capability before their current business becomes a pure commodity. Local organizations should develop offshore capabilities or build relationship with several smaller offshore firms in order to provide a range of application development alternatives for their clients. There are numerous offshore companies seeking just such relationships.
Local companies will have difficulty moving from a fully integrated model to one based on development partners, as it means slow or negative growth for their local application development capabilities. An unenviable position at best. This opens the opportunity for a new breed of IT strategy consulting which provides application development through several relationships with local and offshore firms.
Offshore IT Article
IT Careers Caught in a Cross-Current
November 10, 2003
By Sharon Gaudin
02Dec
2004 IT Spending Estimates
Filed in Economy | Management | Technology
Let us begin analyzing the investment trends for 2004 by reviewing the predictions for IT spending in 2004. What better way to begin a discussion around the near term performance of technology companies than with near term IT spending?
Here is a summary of common themes from the articles listed here. It is by no means inclusive of all the predictions.
IT spending growth returns in 2004 with growth in the 4-8% range
Computer sales growth is higher than software growth
Infrastructure growth is higher than applications growth
Suites continue to be winners in the application battle
Business Intelligence bucks this trend with pure plays beating suite purchases
IT vendors struggle to adapt their marketing strategy toward solving business needs
Pricing pressure continues, as cost controls remain a high priority
IT services does not enjoy spending growth as movement to offshore providers doubles in 2004
Outlook for 2004 App Budgets: Conservative Growth
Forrester Business Technographics
December 1, 2003
Tech Resurrection Will Be Accompanied by Significant Structural Change, According to IDC Predictions 2004
09 Dec 2003
See full report. Registration is required.
Predicts 2004: IT Management and IT Services & Outsourcing
Gartner
24 November 2003 Acrobat
Gartner Sees IT Spending Rebound
November 11, 2003
By Roy Mark
Some IT Purse Strings May Be Loosened Next Year
DECEMBER 01, 2003 ( COMPUTERWORLD )
SIIA Technology Spending Horizons Survey
October 2003 Acrobat
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