As I look at predictions for 2004, one area where consensus abounds and debate increases is “Offshore Outsourcing”, the movement of knowledge worker jobs offshore. There is abundant agreement that this will continue, even accelerate.

At the same time there is widespread disagreement as to whether this is a good thing for US and European economies. Here are some articles and papers on the issue.

In this paper, McKinsey estimates for every dollar of US work outsourced to India, the return to the US is between $1.12 and $1.14. India stands to increase their GDP by $0.33.
Offshoring: Is it a Win-Win Game?
McKinsey Global Institute
August, 2003

India and Software
A number of articles in the Wall Street Journal and New York Times on the Indian software industry.
Emergic.org

Offshoring – Relocating the back office
Dec 11th 2003 From The Economist print edition

The Organizational Implications of Offshore Outsourcing
24 October 2003
Diane Morello
Acrobat Version

The Irony of Outsourcing
By Kevin Laws on November 18, 2003 09:03 PM
Supports the argument that economic activity flowing to the most efficient provider creates the greatest total value and in the long run the greatest value for each country involved. He points out the engineers who “thought” manufacturing workers out of jobs are now seeing their own jobs reduced and sent offshore.